Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.008920 0.010056 0.011284 0.012710 0.014322 0.016089 0.018173
2026-01-18 0.007016 0.008554 0.010352 0.012614 0.015386 0.018679 0.022895
2026-01-25 0.005969 0.007680 0.009795 0.012604 0.016247 0.020824 0.027032
2026-02-01 0.005152 0.006926 0.009217 0.012401 0.016724 0.022412 0.030497
2026-02-08 0.004625 0.006457 0.008917 0.012470 0.017494 0.024373 0.034566
2026-02-15 0.004145 0.005987 0.008543 0.012368 0.017971 0.025926 0.038157
2026-02-22 0.003857 0.005745 0.008450 0.012628 0.018955 0.028241 0.043017
2026-03-01 0.003432 0.005257 0.007948 0.012226 0.018903 0.029001 0.045581
2026-03-08 0.003111 0.004892 0.007588 0.011992 0.019061 0.030063 0.048667
2026-03-15 0.002812 0.004532 0.007201 0.011673 0.019045 0.030827 0.051309
2026-03-22 0.002706 0.004466 0.007264 0.012072 0.020205 0.033548 0.057386
2026-03-29 0.002578 0.004353 0.007240 0.012318 0.021123 0.035932 0.063085
2026-04-05 0.002465 0.004257 0.007239 0.012613 0.022162 0.038631 0.069626
2026-04-12 0.002293 0.004045 0.007028 0.012523 0.022524 0.040188 0.074277
2026-04-19 0.002151 0.003874 0.006871 0.012513 0.023017 0.042006 0.079552
2026-04-26 0.001993 0.003662 0.006621 0.012311 0.023138 0.043146 0.083633
2026-05-03 0.001889 0.003539 0.006524 0.012381 0.023764 0.045265 0.089780
2026-05-10 0.001771 0.003380 0.006345 0.012278 0.024050 0.046751 0.094795
2026-05-17 0.001710 0.003323 0.006354 0.012537 0.025057 0.049710 0.103042
2026-05-24 0.001572 0.003108 0.006042 0.012138 0.024716 0.049964 0.105702
2026-05-31 0.001466 0.002946 0.005823 0.011905 0.024691 0.050844 0.109747
2026-06-07 0.001359 0.002775 0.005572 0.011589 0.024464 0.051286 0.112876
2026-06-14 0.001335 0.002773 0.005661 0.011985 0.025772 0.055050 0.123658